The Art And Science Of Nobel Prize Prediction
Nobel Medal WikipediaHow Thomson Reuters analyst David Pendlebury makes impressively accurate predictions of who will win. Every May for the past 10 years, Thomson Reuters analyst David Pendlebury has sat down and pored through academic papers, searching for a glimmer of glory. On the hunt for scientists who deserve a Nobel Prize, Pendlebury sifts through papers on topics from macroeconomics to macromolecules, judging their influence on their respective fields and choosing scientists whose work stands the test of time. PopSci talked to him about his methodology - the science behind predicting the science Nobel winners. Pendlebury's picks include physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine, and economics - the Nobels for science, whose impact can be measured. Peace and literature are somewhat more subjective. Pendlebury begins with academic citations, he explained in an interview. Thomson Reuters is the only group to predict Nobel winners based on data, not just a bookie's odds, and has...