Predicting insurgent attacks with a mathematical model

When bombs and bullets left 37 dead during Friday prayers at a mosque in Pakistan, earlier this month, the insurgency was using the element of surprise. Unpredictability is the hallmark of modern insurgent attacks such as this one. However, the likelihood of such events, their timing and strength can now be estimated and managed before occurring, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Miami. The study entitled "Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency" is featured as the cover of the December 17, 2009 issue of the scientific journal Nature.

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