'Match' Madness: Picking upsets a losing strategy

Thursday, March 4, 2010 - 08:14 in Psychology & Sociology

Soon Americans nationwide will begin poring over NCAA men's basketball tournament brackets in their annual attempt at glory -- and maybe even a little cash -- in winning the ubiquitous, albeit illegal, office pool. New research has found that strategists, regardless of their sports expertise, would be better off sticking with the numbers even when upsets are likely. Probability matching, say the researchers, might be tempting but is a losing bet.

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