Analyzing seismic patterns to forecast the magnitude of the largest earthquake aftershocks

Earthquakes can have devastating impacts on communities all around the world. They strike without warning, often resulting in large fatalities. Since the aftershocks that follow the initial earthquake often prove to be more catastrophic than the mainshock, being able to accurately predict the intensity of future aftershocks can help to save lives. Associate Professor Jiancang Zhuang and Emeritus Professor Yosihiko Ogata from The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM) in Japan, in collaboration with colleagues, have developed a method that can forecast the probability of when and where aftershocks are likely to occur, and how strong the largest of these will be.

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