Predictability limit for tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Friday, October 19, 2018 - 07:40 in Earth & Climate

For an atmospheric system, there exists a limit to how far ahead one can make predictions. This is referred to as atmospheric predictability. Within this limit, however, the weather forecast will still contain some uncertainty. Given that numerical models are "perfect," the predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) is limited by the chaotic nature of the system itself. How long, then, is the TC predictability limit?

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