Calculating evolution: Program predicts the development of influenza viruses
For a long time, prognoses forecasting the evolutionary future of organisms were considered mere speculation. Together with researchers from Cambridge and Santa Barbara scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Tübingen have developed an algorithm that can predict the evolution of asexual organisms such as viruses or cancer cells. The researchers tested the programme for the first time on the historical development of the A/H3N2 influenza virus: retrospectively, the algorithm was able to determine the upcoming season's virus type with good or very good accuracy in most cases. In the near future, combining this approach with other methods could further increase the accuracy of the prognoses. Furthermore, the method developed by the researchers is not restricted to influenza viruses – it can even be applied to predict the development of HIV and noroviruses, as well as cancer cells.