Travelling epidemics: Human mobility patterns and their impact on the spread of epidemics
(PhysOrg.com) -- In a globalized world, infectious diseases such as SARS, swine flu or seasonal influenza can be transmitted over the entire planet by travellers. To enable a more effective response to this threat, scientists are trying to predict the propagation pathways and speed of such pandemics. Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-organization (MPIDS) in Gottingen and at University of Gottingen, Northwestern University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the USA, have now, for the first time, managed to develop mathematical models which account for individual mobility patterns. Not only did new calculations confirm that earlier models had significantly overestimated the speed with which diseases are propagated. The previously known criteria for a global outbreak also had to be broadened. The new study was selected by the American Physical Society for publication in the first issue of its new high-profile journal, Physical Review X.