Explained: Monte Carlo simulations
Speak to enough scientists, and you hear the words “Monte Carlo” a lot. “We ran the Monte Carlos,” a researcher will say. What does that mean?The scientists are referring to Monte Carlo simulations, a statistical technique used to model probabilistic (or “stochastic”) systems and establish the odds for a variety of outcomes. The concept was first popularized right after World War II, to study nuclear fission; mathematician Stanislaw Ulam coined the term in reference to an uncle who loved playing the odds at the Monte Carlo casino (then a world symbol of gambling, like Las Vegas today). Today there are multiple types of Monte Carlo simulations, used in fields from particle physics to engineering, finance and more. To get a handle on a Monte Carlo simulation, first consider a scenario where we do not need one: to predict events in a simple, linear system. If you know the precise direction...