We can no longer rely on historical data to predict extreme weather
A satellite image of Hurricane Harvey on August 24 (NASA/NOAA/)Floods and other dangerous weather extremes are only getting more intense and more frequent as our climate warms. Historically, we’ve always been able to predict these extremes by looking at how often they occurred in the past. But a new study published Wednesday in Science Advances reveals just how many of those forecasts actually fall short. In just a decade, the findings suggest, the climate has shifted so drastically that the frequency of past extreme events is no longer a reliable predictor.These predictions help us draw floodplain maps and design infrastructure so that it can withstand even intense events. But if our predictions are wrong, that means we can no longer plan new housing, roads, and bridges based on the storms of the past. Increasing extremes—such as tropical cyclones, heat waves, and heavy storms—will force us to change our plans and...