Innovation dilemma suggests that 'better' models are not always better

(Phys.org)—If you had to predict the probability of a catastrophic meteor striking the Earth, you would likely want the most accurate models on which to base your predictions. But a new paper shows that, because the most accurate models are generally more innovative and complex, they may suffer from a higher probability of error. Consequently, the most innovative and accurate models may not offer the best methods for making predictions, especially of rare, high-consequence events.

Read the whole article on Physorg

More from Physorg