Scientists develop better approach to predict the intensity of tropical hurricanes
Monday, September 21, 2015 - 08:00
in Earth & Climate
Category 1, Category 3, the dreaded Category 5—Americans are becoming too familiar with the ratings of hurricanes or tropical cyclones. Scientists use a measure called Potential Intensity to help them forecast the strength of tropical cyclones, aka hurricanes or typhoons. Unfortunately, that measure does not accurately take into account how the ocean subsurface conditions help fuel such storms. A team of scientists led by researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory modified the current formula to calculate Potential Intensity by including the effects of upper-ocean mixing, sea-surface cooling, and salinity during a cyclone. The improved formula nearly doubles the accuracy in forecasting tropical cyclone intensification.