Do Biases And Analytical Improvements Of Polls Help Predict Elections?
Friday, November 9, 2012 - 15:01
in Psychology & Sociology
The most startling thing to me about the election of 2012 was how spookily accurate polls were. Social scientists in one camp want to dismiss determinism while the other camp has biology-envy but either the deterministic side got a big boost on Tuesday or the opposing sides in this election were so entrenched there was virtually no reason to vote, other than to see who had the best Get Out The Vote campaign. As I discussed in How Accurate Are Those Political Polls?, that is where the magic happens. Could polls predict how successful a Get Out The Vote campaign?Maybe. I know one party is scrambling to see what went wrong. read more