Why the odds of a coronavirus recession have risen
This is part of our Coronavirus Update series in which Harvard specialists in epidemiology, infectious disease, economics, politics, and other disciplines offer insights into what the latest developments in the COVID-19 outbreak may bring. Throughout his career, Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), has assiduously tried to avoid making predictions about when the next economic recession would come and how bad it could get. But on Feb. 24, when most forecasters were still optimistic about the world’s economic outlook as the coronavirus began to spread outside China, Frankel wrote an article in Project Syndicate warning that the outbreak increased the likelihood of a global downturn. The Gazette talked to Frankel about the impact of the pandemic on the U.S. economy and why he thinks it may be headed for recession. Q&A Jeffrey Frankel GAZETTE: What was the outlook of the global economy before the...