Harvard scientists probe aftershocks with AI
In the weeks and months following a major earthquake, the surrounding area is often wracked by powerful aftershocks that can leave an already damaged community reeling and can significantly hamper recovery efforts. While scientists have developed empirical laws to describe the likely size and timing of those aftershocks, such as Bath’s Law and Ohmori’s Law, forecasting their location has been harder. But sparked by a suggestion from researchers at Google, Brendan Meade, professor of earth and planetary sciences, and Phoebe DeVries, a postdoctoral fellow working in his lab, are using artificial intelligence technology to try to get a handle on the problem. Using deep-learning algorithms, the pair analyzed a database of earthquakes from around the world to try to predict where aftershocks might occur, and developed a system that, while still imprecise, was able make significantly better forecasts than random assignment. The work is described in an Aug. 30 paper published in...