Learning from past flu epidemics to model outbreaks as they happen

Tuesday, October 9, 2012 - 03:00 in Health & Medicine

A new model of influenza transmission, published in BioMed Central's open access journal BMC Medicine, using more detailed information about patterns and severity of infection than previous models, finds that cases and transmission rates of H1N1 during the 2009-2010 flu pandemic have been underestimated. This model can provide a more robust and accurate real-time estimate of infection during a pandemic, which will help health services prepare and respond to future outbreaks.