Genetic 'breakthroughs' are often nothing of the sort

Monday, November 9, 2009 - 07:56 in Mathematics & Economics

Don't believe everything you read about genes and disease in prestigious journals like Science and Nature, say Marcus R Munafò and Jonathan Flint. A lot of it is simply wrongDuring the second world war, the physicist Enrico Fermi asked General Leslie Groves of the US Army how many generals might be called "great" and why. Groves replied that any general who won five major battles in a row might be called great, and that about three in every hundred would qualify. Fermi countered that if opposing forces are roughly equal, the odds are one in two that a general will win one battle, one in four that he will win two battles in a row, one in eight for three battles, one in 16 for four battles, and one in 32 for five battles in a row. "So you are right, General, about three in a hundred. Mathematical probability, not...

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