Incorporating human activity into wildfire forecasting

Friday, May 13, 2016 - 08:31 in Earth & Climate

The Fort McMurray wildfire in Alberta. Canada, now at well over half-a-million acres in size and still out of control as of the time of this post (May 12, 2016), has brought a discussion about the intersection of climate change, wildfires, and demographics back to the global stage. The fire has resulted in the evacuation of an estimated 88,000 people and has led to downgrade in the forecasted growth of Canada's gross domestic product (GDP). Scientists have issued repeated warnings for decades that climate change will result in increased wildfires. It is becoming apparent also that human activity is contributing to increased wildfire occurrence. A recent study published in PLOS ONE by George Washington University Professor of Geography, Michael L. Mann and colleagues, finds that the incorporation of human activity and demographics into forecasting fire probabilities reduces model uncertainty and highlights the human contribution to the increased prevalence and occurrence...

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